Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 22.986163 25.020306 27.218310 29.781245 32.702055 35.944219 39.839254
2025-12-14 19.726055 22.471255 25.641326 29.616167 34.529630 40.490190 48.405002
2025-12-21 17.984868 21.269031 25.278703 30.635158 37.765471 47.182290 61.022211
2025-12-28 16.138524 19.629813 24.077511 30.323598 39.157791 51.703985 71.913153
2026-01-04 14.803312 18.436984 23.236979 30.279406 40.800919 56.798782 85.011723
2026-01-11 13.844717 17.607667 22.742242 30.583649 42.919850 62.971299 101.787794
2026-01-18 12.889285 16.670716 21.968200 30.331818 44.080754 67.780430 117.789436
2026-01-25 12.106645 15.893869 21.325929 30.165522 45.304184 72.914336 136.459275
2026-02-01 11.466886 15.260393 20.820647 30.128540 46.705013 78.664296 159.118430
2026-02-08 10.878720 14.651262 20.287427 29.964348 47.824471 84.103338 183.872700
2026-02-15 10.349688 14.088454 19.771207 29.756561 48.808836 89.490290 211.745054
2026-02-22 9.873486 13.571033 19.280131 29.528468 49.702741 94.903977 243.495902
2026-03-01 9.464502 13.141000 18.911957 29.509167 51.086148 102.083426 288.285925
2026-03-08 9.063346 12.698583 18.490256 29.348179 52.159841 108.897097 339.243554
2026-03-15 8.903127 12.626887 18.680050 30.354997 55.981495 124.593932 453.048312
2026-03-22 8.534093 12.194519 18.219230 30.047985 56.749129 131.801545 535.802659
2026-03-29 8.237483 11.863065 17.908776 30.004617 58.143013 141.601068 657.727627
2026-04-05 8.015952 11.642310 17.775895 30.305056 60.451288 155.590270 855.963084
2026-04-12 7.731035 11.299450 17.399421 30.056544 61.307603 164.881383 1050.586804
2026-04-19 7.478382 10.998109 17.078231 29.892423 62.367341 175.599492 1322.155171
2026-04-26 7.260142 10.744430 16.827867 29.855932 63.781723 188.675045 1732.193870
2026-05-03 7.039969 10.476663 16.534115 29.693857 64.817974 200.847410 2268.413369
2026-05-10 6.828334 10.213982 16.234050 29.488736 65.700324 213.012886 3015.771478